Last year, soaring paper prices printed bosses are so profitable? 2
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Paper, printing industry profit curve
In the case of sharp fluctuations in the price of various paper products and repeatedly hitting new highs in recent years, the performance of the papermaking industry has risen in reasonable terms, and the profitability of the printing industry has risen rather than fallen.
Because the status of printing companies is relatively weak in the industry chain of papermaking, printing, and downstream customers, bargaining power is not very strong for paper mills with higher concentration or downstream customers with larger scale. In this round of near-unprecedented fluctuations in the price of paper, printers are often considered to be the worst hit.
The operation of the industrial economy can be surprising. Is it possible to infer that the increase in paper prices has no effect on the profits of the printing industry? It does not seem to be the case.
After decomposing the relevant statistical data of the National Bureau of Statistics into each month, it is found that: While papermaking and printing industry enterprises above designated size are highly similar in revenue trends, the total profit curve shows more negative correlations.
Let's look at revenue first. The total value of 1-2 months was removed. It can be seen that the high points of the revenues of industrial enterprises above designated size in the papermaking and printing industries all appeared in June, which were 145.54 billion yuan and 84.33 billion yuan respectively; the lows all appeared in November, respectively. It was 98.41 billion yuan and 60.29 billion yuan. From the month-on-month trend, from January to July and November to December, the two industries both fell in the same category, but only in the three months from August to October.
Seeing this, some bosses may ask: Why don't you separate January and February? Because the National Bureau of Statistics only announced the total value of industrial enterprises above designated size for the period of January-February, it cannot be subdivided. Please also forgive me.
Revenue Trends of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size in Papermaking and Printing Industry in 2017 (Unit: 100 million yuan)
Let's look at the total profit. In the same way, for the total value of 1-2 months, the chain turnover of industrial enterprises above designated size in papermaking and printing industry is positively correlated with only three months: June, August and September, April-May, July, and October. -12 months showed a negative correlation.
In particular, in the last three months, the negative correlation between the total profits of the papermaking and printing industries was very obvious: in October, the total profit of the papermaking industry increased 12.51% month-on-month, and the printing industry decreased 6.46% month-on-month. In November, the papermaking industry decreased by 22.06%. The printing industry increased by 15.58%; in December, the papermaking industry increased by 10.06%, and the printing industry decreased by 14.33%.
Total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in papermaking and printing industry in 2017 (Unit: 100 million yuan)
The positive correlation between papermaking and printing industry revenues is well understood. The rise in paper prices will directly drive the increase in revenue of papermaking companies, and it will also trigger the price increase of printing companies, especially if the increase is too large. The negative correlation between the total profits of the two companies is greater than the positive correlation. It is understandable that the time taken for the printing companies to transmit downward fluctuations in the price of paper will take a negative correlation.
What is the overall performance of revenue and total profits? What about the profitability curves of the two industries? Xiao Bian found a phenomenon that appeared to be "contradictory." In the majority of months, the performance was negatively correlated, and the two industries' full-year profitability trend showed a high positive correlation.
As shown in the following figure: In the January-March period, the profit margin of industrial enterprises above the scale of the papermaking industry was slightly higher than that of the printing industry. From April to June, the printing industry's profitability increased, and was significantly higher than that of the papermaking industry. What happened during this period of time? Paper prices quickly recovered and were at the year-low low.
Profitability of industrial enterprises above designated size in papermaking and printing industry in 2017
In the second half of the year, the profit margins of the printing and paper industries rose rapidly and appeared to be highly positive. They reached full-year highs in November.
What happened to this time period? The price of paper broke the previous high, rose rapidly, and reached the peak of the year at the end of October, then fell sharply in November.