How much did the price of cultural papers rise in this year's 32 paper mills nationwide?
After boarding CCTV Finance, news of rising paper prices appeared today on the headline of Sina News. According to reports, from May 1 to May 4, there were 32 papers in the country in just 4 days. The factory announced a price increase, and the price range of each paper ranged from 100 yuan to 300 yuan per ton. This news also caused a panic in the circle of publishers' friends.
In fact, the increase in the price of paper from 2017 to the present day has become a heart disease for many publishers. The data shows that the price of cultural paper rose by nearly 2,000 yuan in 2017 to Dongfan 105G coated paper and gold ball (70g-100g). In paper, for example, the national average ex-factory price increased from RMB 6,025/t and 6,150/t to 7,625/t and 7,950/t at the end of 2017, but before 2016, the national average ex-factory price of these two kinds of paper did not increase. There is growth.
The increase in the price of paper has also helped push up the price of books to a certain extent, but blindly rising prices cannot solve the problem, especially in reprinting books. Since the prices of reprinted books cannot be adjusted, the rise in paper prices should have been an important source of profits. The sales book cannot contribute to the profit of the book company, and even the private book industry practitioner complains to the publisher magazine. Under the current cost conditions, the reprint book may even lose money.
However, from the data point of view, in 2018, the increase in the price of cultural papers was not as serious as the media has exaggerated. The increase in paper prices was mainly concentrated on whiteboard, corrugated, and cardboard. The data shows that at the beginning of 2018, the ex-factory price of cultural papers also declined slightly, and from March to March, due to the publishing industry entering the fall period for students' teaching and preparation, the demand for cultural papers was in peak season. The same applies to Dongfan 105G coated paper and gold. Take the ball (70g-100g) double-glue paper as an example, the average ex-factory price of the two countries has risen by about RMB 200/ton, which is a normal seasonal adjustment, far below the increase of nearly one thousand yuan per ton in the same period of last year.
Despite this, the upswing of cultural paper prices is still a high probability event. In the interview, many paper industry practitioners stated that for a long period of time in 2016 and before, paper prices had been at a relatively low price, and it was not until 2017 that the price of industrial raw materials was systematically increased. Adjustments, but for the paper mill, after the current increase in the majority of paper mills, so that "days are a little better." Therefore, it seems unlikely that it is expected that paper mills will actively lower prices.
From the industry point of view, due to the tightening of environmental protection policies and the elimination of low-end production capacity in the past two years, many small and medium-sized paper mills have closed down. This has led to an increase in the industry concentration of the paper industry. Several large-scale oligarch paper mills in the market are very It is easy to form a "collusion" insured price.
The reporter’s survey found that practitioners’ expectations for future cultural paper prices are: They will remain high, but there will be no significant increase in 2017 as much as in 2017.
In the long run, the rise in paper prices will have a more serious impact on small and micro-sized book companies, and the decline in the rate of return caused by rising costs will further squeeze the living space of small and micro-sized book enterprises; large-scale publishing houses have a large amount of paper. The bargaining power in the market is strong, and the impact of rising paper prices is also relatively small. It can be foreseen that rising costs will also force the publishing industry to adjust, and optimization of business structure will become a major topic for book companies in the future.
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