An Analysis Of The Operation Of China Paper Industry In 2015 And Existing Problems

- Jun 02, 2018-

An Analysis of the Operation of China Paper Industry in 2015 and Existing Problems


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I. Production and Economic Operation of China Paper Industry from January to September of 2015


1. Production completion


According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, as of the end of September 2015, the number of enterprises in the pulp, paper and paper products industry was 6,717. Among them, there are 48 pulp manufacturing industries, 2766 paper industry, and 3903 paper product manufacturing industries.


Accumulated production from January to September 2015: Paper and cardboard 878.221 million tons, a decrease of 1.6489 million tons, a decrease of 1.84% over the same period last year; pulp 12.29914 million tons, an increase of 154,400 tons over the same period last year, an increase of 1.27%; Paper products were 53,423,300 tons, an increase of 6,588,400 tons over the same period of last year, an increase of 13.83%; of which: the cumulative production of cardboard boxes was 32,058,400 tons, an increase of 4,791,400 tons over the same period of last year, an increase of 17.57%.


2. Import and export of paper and paperboard


From January to September 2015, the cumulative import of paper and paperboard was 2,174,600 tons, an increase of 1.53% over the same period of last year. The use of foreign exchanges was 2.542 billion US dollars, a decrease of 6.51% over the same period of last year.


From January to September 2015, the total export volume of paper and paperboard was 4,856,400 tons, which was a year-on-year decrease of 4.78%; the value of exports was US$6.674 billion, an increase of 1.14% over the same period of the previous year.


3. Import and export of pulp and waste paper


From January to September 2015, the cumulative import of pulp was 14.5752 million tons, an increase of 10.79% year-on-year; the use of foreign exchanges was US$95.10 billion, an increase of 5.13% over the same period of the previous year. The cumulative amount of imported waste paper was 221.716 million tons, an increase of 6.25% year-on-year, and the use of foreign exchanges was US$4.009 billion, which was a decrease of 2.41% from the same period last year.


From January to September of 2015, the company exported a total of 76,800 tons of various types of commercial pulp, an increase of 2.13% over the same period of last year; the amount of exports was 84,533,100 USD, a year-on-year decrease of 6.88%. Exports of 535.80 tons of various types of waste paper, a year-on-year decrease of 9.84%; exports of 237,700 US dollars, an increase of 0.95%.


4. Completion of economic indicators


According to the statistical data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the major economic indicators of enterprises above the designated size for pulp, paper and paper products from January to September 2015 were as follows:


(1) Revenue from main operations


The industry has completed 100.8222 billion yuan, an increase of 3.45%. among them:


Pulp manufacturing industry completed a total of 9.797 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.33%;


The paper industry completed a total of 583.158 billion yuan, an increase of 2.66% year-on-year;


Paper product manufacturing industry completed a total of 4157.84, an increase of 4.79% year-on-year.


(2) Total taxation


The industry completed a total of 76.231 billion yuan, an increase of 6.96%. among them:


Pulp manufacturing industry completed a total of 211 million yuan, an increase of 297.22%;


The paper industry has completed a total of 38.851 billion yuan, an increase of 6.41% over the previous year;


Paper product manufacturing industry completed a total of 37.169 billion yuan, an increase of 6.60%.


(3) Total profit


The industry has completed a total of 48.378 billion yuan, an increase of 8.57%. among them:


Pulp manufacturing industry completed a total loss of 185 million yuan, an increase of 65.29%;


The paper industry completed a total of 23.636 billion yuan, an increase of 8.33% over the previous year;


Paper product manufacturing industry completed a total of 24.936 billion yuan, an increase of 7.11%.


From the data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics, we can see that the production and operation of the pulp, paper and paper products industry were basically stable from January to September 2015, and the completion of the major economic indicators has improved compared with the same period of last year.


Second, problems in production and economic operation


According to statistical express data analysis, in the first nine months of 2015, the overall industry production and economic performance of pulp, paper and paper products was basically stable, but it has not yet emerged from a weak trend. The appearance of production and consumption has declined, and the main business income, profits and taxes, and profits have improved year-on-year, but there are still some problems in the following aspects.


1. Decrease in statistics on production volume and consumption of paper and board


From January to September 2015, the output of paper and board was 87,822,100 tons, which was a year-on-year decrease of 1.84%. From the monthly production of the first 9 months, the output of the 9 months out of the 9 months decreased year-on-year. According to the analysis of production, import and export, as of the end of September, the apparent consumption of paper and paperboard was 85,104,300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.59%. From the above data, it can also be seen that the decline in consumption is slightly lower than the decline in production.


2. The production and operation of pulping enterprises have improved, but they are still in difficulties


Express Report Statistics The production of pulp from January to September 2015 increased by 1.27% over the same period of last year; the total profit and tax amounted to 211 million yuan, an increase of 297.22% year-on-year; the total profit was still loss of 185 million yuan, but the loss amount decreased by 65.29% over the previous year. .


3. Net increase in accounts receivable


From January to September 2015, the total net accounts receivable of papermaking and paper products industry was 1,491.140 billion yuan, an increase of 7.682 billion yuan over the same period of last year, an increase of 5.43%. Among them, the net receivables of the pulp manufacturing industry was 1.38 billion yuan, an increase of 1.629 billion yuan over the same period of the previous year; the net receivables of paper and board manufacturing enterprises was 86.862 billion yuan, an increase of 5.230 billion yuan over the same period of the previous year; The net receivables of the paper products industry was RMB 60,897 million, an increase of RMB 823 million over the same period of the previous year.


4. Increased loss of the company


According to the express report, as of the end of September 2015, there were 966 loss-making enterprises in the domestic pulp, paper and paper products industry, which accounted for 14% of the total number of enterprises. The cumulative loss was 7.337 billion yuan, an increase of 102 million yuan over the same period of last year. Among them, there are 21 loss-making enterprises in pulp manufacturing industry, accounting for 44% of the total number of pulp enterprises, cumulative losses of 671 million yuan, a decrease of 356 million yuan over the same period of last year; 422 loss-making enterprises in the paper industry, accounting for 15% of the total number of enterprises, accumulative The loss was RMB 5.215 billion, an increase of RMB 269 million over the same period of the previous year. There were 523 loss-making enterprises in the paper products industry, accounting for 13% of the total number of paper products enterprises. The accumulated loss was 1.451 billion yuan, an increase of 189 million yuan over the same period of the previous year.


III. Analysis and Prediction of Production and Consumption of Pulp and Waste Paper


1. Analysis of Pulp Production and Import of Pulp


According to statistics, in 2014, the country produced 79.06 million tons of various types of pulp, an increase of 3.33% over the previous year. Among them: 9.62 million tons of wood pulp, 7.55 million tons of non-wood pulp, and 61.89 million tons of waste paper pulp.


From January to September 2015, the domestic primary pulp production volume was 12,291,100 tons, which represented an increase of 154,400 tons over the same period of the previous year, an increase of 1.27%.


From January to September of 2015, China imported 14.4752 million tons of various types of commercial pulp, which was an increase of 1.4372 million tons over the same period of last year, an increase of 10.79% year-on-year. The average monthly import was 16.395 million tons, an increase of 159,700 tons over the previous year's average monthly import volume. . From January to September 2015, the output of pulp was 76,800 tons, an increase of 2.13% over the same period of last year.


Looking at the types of imported commercial pulp, the import of bleached kraft softwood pulp from January to September 2015 was 5,455,500 tons, an increase of 444,500 tons over the same period of the previous year, and the average price was US$671/ton, which was a decrease of 49% over the same period of last year. US$/ton. Imports of bleached hardwood pulp were 5,761,800 tons, an increase of 685,500 tons over the same period of last year. The average price was US$590/ton, which was US$4/ton higher than the same period of last year. The natural sulfate wood pulp imported was 434,600 tons. Compared with the previous year, it increased by 49,000 tons, the average price was 554 US dollars / ton, down 79 US dollars / ton over the same period the previous year; imports of chemical pulp 1.3530 million tons, an increase of 158,300 tons over the previous year, the average price of 467 US dollars / ton, Compared with the same period of the previous year, it decreased by 85 US dollars/ton; the imports of dissolved wood pulp were 169.98 million tons, an increase of 118,200 tons over the same period of last year, and the average price was 898 US dollars/ton, which was a decrease of 49 US dollars/ton compared with the same period of last year.


From the data for the first nine months of 2015, it can be seen that the pulp import volume of the main varieties has increased, and the unit price has risen slightly except for bleached hardwood pulp, while other varieties have declined to varying degrees.


According to the production situation of domestic pulp, paper and board, the import volume in the first nine months of this year and the supply of commodity pulp market, we estimate that the total volume of merchandise pulp imported in 2015 will be approximately 19.5 million tons (including 2.3 million tons of dissolving pulp). Left and right), a year-on-year increase of about 10%; exports of about 100,000 tons, basically the same as last year. Domestic primary pulp production is expected to reach 17 million tons, which is about 1% lower than the previous year.


2. Analysis of waste pulp production and waste paper import


In 2014, 61.89 million tons of waste paper pulp was used in the national papermaking production pulp, accounting for 65% of the total pulp consumption, equivalent to approximately 75.93 million tons of waste paper. Among them, 48.41 million tons of waste papers are recycled in China.


From January to September 2015, the total amount of imported waste paper was 221.716 million tons, an increase of 1,302,600 tons over the same period of last year, an increase of 6.24% year-on-year. The average monthly import was 2,465,500 tons, an increase of 144,700 tons over the previous year's average monthly import volume.


From the monthly import situation in the first nine months of 2015, the import volume of waste paper in March and April decreased compared with the same period of last year, and the import volume of waste paper increased in varying degrees. From the trend of waste paper import prices, the average price of waste paper imports from January to September 2015 was relatively stable, with an average price of US$180.81/ton, a decrease of US$16.04 or a decrease of 8.15% over the same period of the previous year.


From the type of imported waste paper, the cumulative number of imported waste corrugated cardboard boxes from January to September 2015 was 12.5195 million tons, an increase of 5.86% from the same period of last year. The average import price per ton was US$190, which was a decrease of US$18 from the same period of last year; cumulative newsprint was imported. Paper and waste magazines were 449.88 million tons, an increase of 4.74%. The average import price per ton was 169 US dollars, a decrease of 13 US dollars over the same period of the previous year. The cumulative import of mixed waste paper was 4,485,500 tons, an increase of 6.15%, and the average import price per ton was 158 yuan. , a decrease of 15 US dollars over the same period of the previous year; cumulative office waste paper 668,900 tons, an increase of 28.20%, an average price of 258 US dollars per ton, an increase of 8 US dollars over the same period the previous year.


From January to September 2015, the export of waste paper was 535.80 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.84%.


According to the import trend in the first 9 months and the production demand in the following months, it is estimated that the import volume of waste paper in 2015 will be approximately 29 million tons, an increase of approximately 5.5% year-on-year; the export volume will be less than 1,000 tons; Slightly lower.


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