An Analysis of the Operation of China Paper Industry in 2015 and Existing Problems 2
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IV. Analysis and Prediction of Production and Consumption of Major Products of Paper and Cardboard
According to the statistics of the China Pulp and Paper Association, in 2014, the production volume of domestic newsprint was 3.25 million tons, 50,000 tons of imported newsprint, and 3.12 million tons of annual consumption. According to statistics provided by the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television, a total of 1912 kinds of newspapers were published nationwide in 2014, with a total number of prints of 46.39 billion copies, a decrease of 3.8%; total printed sheets of 192.23 billion sheets of prints, a decrease of 8.4%, equivalent to a paper consumption of 4.421 million tons, a decrease 404,000 tons, down 8.37%. With the decline of newspaper publishing, newsprint also faces severe challenges.
According to express reports, from January to September 2015, domestic newsprint production was approximately 2.52 million tons, an increase of approximately 2% year-on-year. According to customs statistics, newsprint accumulated imports of 42900 tons from January to September 2015, a year-on-year increase of 16.87%. Total exports of 13,400 tons, down 81.17% year-on-year; apparent consumption of about 2.55 million tons, an increase of about 4% over the same period last year.
According to the production bulletin of newsprint for the first nine months of 2015 and the analysis of the monthly situation of key production enterprises and the volume of newspapers published in 2015, it is expected that the production of newsprint in 2015 will fall by about 10% compared with the previous year. The total amount is about 2.9 million tons, the import volume is about 50,000 tons, and the export volume is about 20,000 tons. The total consumption for the whole year is expected to be about 2.93 million tons, which is about 8% lower than the same period of last year.
2, printing and writing paper
According to statistics from the State Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television Bureau, in 2014, 448,000 books were published across the country, with a total of 8.19 billion copies (Zhang), a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%; total printed sheets were 70.43 billion copies, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, equivalent to 1.645 million copies of paper. Ton. There were 9,966 kinds of periodicals published nationwide with a total number of 3.095 billion copies, a year-on-year decrease of 5.44%. The total number of printed sheets was 18.358 billion sheets, a year-on-year decrease of 5.71%, equivalent to 452,200 tons of paper.
The volume of books and periodicals used was equivalent to 2.0803 million tons of paper, a decrease of 47,100 tons over the previous year. The above data shows that in 2014, the amount of printing paper was falling within the comparable range of statistics of the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television.
From January to September 2015, the cumulative import of uncoated writing and printing paper was 282,900 tons, an increase of 20.26% over the same period of last year; cumulative exports were 791,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.71%.
From the current understanding, uncoated writing and printing paper production companies have increased or decreased, and the total production volume has increased slightly. Taking into account changes in the import, export, and raw materials of such products, it is expected that the annual production volume of uncoated printing and writing paper will be approximately 17.4 million tons. The total import volume was about 350,000 tons, an increase of about 15% year-on-year; the total export volume was about 1.05 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 10%; the annual consumption was about 16.7 million tons, an increase of about 2.5%.
3, coated paper
The production capacity of domestic coated paper has not changed much in the past two years. At present, the production capacity has exceeded 9 million tons per year. However, the production concentration of this product is relatively high, and the production capacity is mainly concentrated in several large enterprises. Due to the slowdown of domestic economic development in recent years, the increase in the consumption of coated paper has also been synchronically declining. In addition, due to the anti-dumping and countervailing investigations imposed on China’s coated paper exports in recent years, countries such as Europe and the United States have restricted the coated paper to some extent. Exports, resulting in the production capacity of coated paper in China turned into a relative surplus, reduced operating rates, and fierce market competition.
According to statistics, from January to September 2015, cumulative import of coated paper was 195,300 tons, an increase of 4.13% year-on-year; cumulative exports were 825,100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.58%.
Due to the slowdown in domestic consumption growth and the obstruction of exports, it is expected that the domestic production volume of copperplate paper will remain at or slightly lower than that of the previous year, and will remain at about 6.8 million tons; the export volume is expected to be about 1.1 million tons, a year-on-year decrease. 15%; import volume is about 250,000 tons, an increase of about 4% year-on-year, and annual consumption is about 5.95 million tons, an increase of about 1.3% over the previous year.
4, household paper
Tissue paper is the fastest-growing product in the past two years. The newly-formed capacity in 2015 is about 800,000 tons/year. Judging from the current situation, the vast majority of household paper production enterprises in 2015 are still profitable, but their production capacity is expanding rapidly, the market is expected to increase negatively, product competition is intensifying, and profitability has declined.
According to statistics, in 2014, the domestic production of household paper was 8.3 million tons, an increase of 4.40% year-on-year; the export volume was 750,000 tons, an increase of 17.19%; the import volume was 40,000 tons, an increase of 33.33%; the annual consumption was 7.59 million tons. The year-on-year increase of 3.41%.
From January to September 2015, the cumulative import of household paper was 21,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.25%, and the cumulative export volume was 533,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.47%.
Based on the above data and understanding of the production and market of domestic household paper, it is estimated that the total domestic production of domestic paper will be approximately 8.8 million tons in 2015, an increase of approximately 6%; the import volume will be approximately 30,000 tons, a decrease of approximately 25%; About 700,000 tons, a drop of about 7%; consumption of about 8.13 million tons, an increase of about 7%.
5, white cardboard
There was little change in the production of whiteboard in 2015, but the market was affected by the economic environment, competition was intensified, and prices were low.
According to statistics, in 2014, the annual output of domestic white paperboard was 13.95 million tons, an increase of 2.57% year-on-year; the export volume was 1.58 million tons, an increase of 36.21% year-on-year; the import volume was 640,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.03%; the annual consumption was 13.01 million tons. , a year-on-year decrease of 0.69%.
From January to September 2015, the cumulative import volume of whiteboard was 472,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.25%, and the cumulative export volume was 1,185,700 tons, an increase of 2.63% over the same period last year.
Based on the above data and the analysis of imported waste paper raw materials, it is expected that the domestic white paperboard production volume in 2015 will be the same as that of the previous year, with a total of approximately 13.95 million tons; the import volume will be approximately 600,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 6%; the export volume will be approximately 155 Ten thousand tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 1.9%; the annual consumption is about 13 million tons, which is basically the same as the previous year.
6, cardboard and corrugated paper
As China's economy continues to grow at a rate of around 7% this year, the primary and secondary industries still account for more than 50% of GDP, and the rapid development of emerging express delivery services has led to a certain increase in the demand for cardboard and corrugated paper. In addition, with the gradual formation of new balance, the competition for such products has become flat and the market prices have shown signs of improvement. Overall, the cardboard and corrugated paper market was basically stable in 2015.
According to the statistics of China Paper Association, in 2014, the domestic production of boxboard was 21.8 million tons, an increase of 6.86% year-on-year; the import volume was 860,000 tons, the export volume was 260,000 tons, and the annual consumption was 22.4 million tons, an increase of 6.36% year-on-year. The corrugated paper production volume was 21.55 million tons, an increase of 6.95% over the previous year; the import volume was 50,000 tons, the export volume was 80,000 tons, and the annual consumption was 21.52 million tons, an increase of 6.91% over the same period of last year.
From January to September 2015, the cumulative import volume of containerboard was 621,600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.79%; the cumulative export volume was 244,600 tons, an increase of 33.22% year-on-year. The total import volume of corrugated paper was 67,300 tons, an increase of 81.40% year-on-year; the cumulative export volume was 50,300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.66%.
Based on the above analysis, it is expected that the domestic container board production in 2015 will be approximately 22.5 million tons, an increase of approximately 3%; the import volume will be approximately 830,000 tons, a decrease of approximately 3%; and the export volume will be approximately 330,000 tons, an increase of approximately 27%; The annual consumption is about 23 million tons, an increase of about 2.7%.
It is estimated that in 2015, the domestic production of corrugated paper will be approximately 22.2 million tons, an increase of 3%; the import volume will be approximately 90,000 tons, and the export volume will be approximately 70,000 tons; the annual consumption is expected to be approximately 22.22 million tons, an increase of approximately 3% over the same period of last year. .
V. Production and Consumption Forecast for the Whole Year in 2015
Based on the above data and analysis, we estimate that the domestic pulp and paper production and consumption in 2015 will be:
The total production of paper and board was approximately 107 million tons, an increase of approximately 2.0% over the same period of last year;
Apparent consumption of paper and paperboard was approximately 104 million tons, an increase of approximately 3.2% over the same period of last year;
The total papermaking pulp production volume was approximately 80 million tons, an increase of approximately 1.5% year-on-year;
Pulp consumption for papermaking was approximately 97 million tons, an increase of approximately 2.2% over the same period of last year.
VI. Domestic Paper Production and Market Trends in 2015 and 2016
According to the current international and domestic economic situation, combined with the analysis of paper industry production and paper market trends, the overall trend of domestic paper industry production and market in 2015 and 2016 is as follows.
(I) Overall trend of production and market of papermaking industry in 2015
1. In 2015, the overall production and operation situation of the paper industry will basically remain stable, and production and sales will be basically balanced, but the product market will be divided and there will be fluctuations. According to the analysis of the information available, we estimate that the production of paper and board and apparent consumption will increase slightly this year, but the increase will not be significant.
2. According to statistics from the Statistics Bureau Express, this year, the main business income of the papermaking industry should have increased, and the completion of major economic indicators is still good. However, according to the current situation, the paper and board production and market sales in the main business are not. If the market is not hot, market confidence is still weak, and the market price of most products is still maintained at a low level. The industry is still not out of its predicament.
3. In 2015, newsprint paper, coated paper and other cultural paper varieties, with the development of domestic multimedia and economic growth and slowing market demand, the production volume will be reduced to varying degrees, especially the newsprint decline will be significant.
4. Pulp and papermaking is a capital-intensive industry and currently has a high level of debt. Due to the lack of optimism in the market for most products this year, competition is fierce, resulting in narrowing of corporate profitability space, tightening of the capital chain, and an increase in the number of enterprises with production difficulties.
5. As there will be an increase in domestic paper and board production this year, which will drive the domestic primary pulp production to increase slightly, but the increase will not be significant; in addition, the overall trend of commodity pulp market prices this year is relatively sluggish, and will also make commodity pulp and Imports of waste paper increased.
6. Affected by the international economic situation and the restrictions imposed by various countries in restricting the increase in China’s paper export measures, this year, the export volume of paper and paperboard will be reduced, and direct exports will be reduced by about 5%. In addition, due to the fall in the overall export growth in China, indirect impact will also be on domestic paper. Growth in production and consumption.
7. The “New Environmental Protection Law” and “Water Ten Articles” and other related policies have been promulgated and implemented. The management and law enforcement have been more stringent, which has increased pressure on pulp and paper manufacturers and increased costs.
(II) The overall situation of domestic paper industry production and market in 2016
1. 2016 is the first year of the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”. As the economic development slows down, demand growth will also decline. This will add to the structural and periodical overcapacity problems of production capacity. The situation of the papermaking industry will be difficult to effectively improve in the short term. , We believe that the production and consumption of the domestic pulp, paper, and paper products industry will continue the 2015 trend in 2016, and the industry as a whole will remain stable. It is expected that the decline in commodity prices and the tightening of the external financial environment may ease, and the market may It will form a low and high trend and the overall performance should be slightly better than this year.
2. As the economic growth slows down, consumption growth will further slow down, and the situation that the domestic production of some products is greater than the apparent consumption will continue. In addition, it takes time for the periodic and structural overcapacity to digest, so this Some product market competition will continue.
3. Due to the declining demand of the paper market, individual varieties have even experienced negative growth. Coupled with the persistently low prices of most products, corporate profitability has narrowed significantly. Therefore, although market competition has existed, it has become flat and new balances are being formed. Therefore, we believe that the overall level of paper market prices in the next year will be better than at present, but the rate will not be large.
4. As the market price of some paper varieties has been low for a long time, the profitability of enterprises has declined or even led to losses, which has caused difficulties for some companies in terms of cash flow and loan financing. It is expected that the situation of these enterprises will become increasingly difficult and some will be forced to withdraw from the market.
5. With the acceleration of the construction of ecological civilization in China, the environmental protection policy will become more stringent, and the elimination of backward production capacity will be increased in certain areas of structural and policy measures. This will result in a decrease in the number of production enterprises and a change in the regional supply situation. This will leave some companies With room for development, it will also accelerate the optimization of the regional structure and concentration of the paper industry.
6. The "Belt and Road" economic circle promoted by the Chinese government and the gradual formation of a number of free trade zones will prompt China's papermaking industry to face both the domestic and international markets. It must also be adapted to the "double-edged" development of the paper industry. Sword" effect. We need to make good use of the adjustment of subsequent tariff rates, changes in overseas renminbi settlement, and other policy changes to expand our market for paper products.
7. Next year will be the opening year of the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”. Pressure from all parties will increase further. In particular, policies and systems for environmental protection will be more systematic, improved, and stricter, forcing companies to increase input and further raise the cost of production and operation. .
With the deepening of the paper industry adjustment process, industry-related policies will be adjusted or changed accordingly. Therefore, companies should pay attention to investment development, environmental protection, energy-saving emission reduction, elimination of backward and tax-related policy changes, and timely adjust their respective development strategies. In addition, companies that use more foreign exchange should also pay attention to the risk of exchange rate changes.
Looking at the economic operation of the paper industry this year, in a number of unfavorable circumstances, the pulp and paper and paper products industry still managed to maintain a stable production and operation and achieve a balance between production and sales. Looking forward to 2016, although the paper production and sales situation is unlikely to be fundamentally improved, it will maintain a stable papermaking industry by optimizing the structure, effectively controlling new production capacity, focusing on development quality, enhancing innovation capabilities, tapping potential internally, and improving risk resistance and competitiveness. development of.
The above are some of the situations of the domestic paper industry and my understanding of these issues. Please correct me for any mistakes.