China's economy continues to advance steadily, expanding and opening up to the world

- May 26, 2018-

China's economy continues to advance steadily, expanding and opening up to the world

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In May 2018, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 51.9%, up from 0.5 percentage points last month, and the overall expansion of the manufacturing industry accelerated. The PMI continued to be above the line of glory in May and was the highest since October 2017. As a leading indicator of macroeconomics, PMI fully reflects the reality of China's stable economic progress.

Affected by complex economic factors at home and abroad, China's economic growth has been facing greater pressure. In the context of the economy shifting from high-speed growth to high-quality development, the first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a rate of 6.8% year-on-year, which was the same as the fourth quarter of 2017. The tax revenue data for January-April also further reflects the reality of China's economic growth. From January to April, the tax revenue was 608.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%. Among them, the most important value-added tax rate in tax revenue was faster, domestic value-added tax increased by 18.4% year-on-year; domestic consumption tax increased by 24% year-on-year; Income tax increased by 13% year-on-year; personal income tax increased by 20.8%.

It should be noted that such tax revenue growth has been achieved in the context of implementing a comprehensive tax reduction policy, and it is even more rare. The financial data of industrial enterprises also reflects the reality of China's stable economic progress. According to the financial data of industrial enterprises released by the National Bureau of Statistics on May 27, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15% year-on-year in the first four months, and the growth rate was 3.4 percentage points faster than that in January-April; among them, the increase was 21.9% in April. , 18.8 percentage points faster than in March. The sharp increase in profits in April compared to March reflects the high quality of growth, which is consistent with the requirements for high quality development.

From the composition of manufacturing PMI in May, the production index was 54.1%, the new order index was 53.8%, the raw material inventory index was 49.6%, the employee index was 49.1%, and the supplier delivery time index was 50.1%. In terms of composition, the production index, new order index and supplier delivery time index are above 50%. The new order index has a weight of 30% in the PMI and a production index of 25%. These two indices largely determine the overall situation of the manufacturing PMI.

The new orders index for May was the highest since October 2017; the production index was the highest since December 2017. Below 50% of the raw material inventory index and the employee index are higher than last month. The new order index has the highest weight in the PMI, reflecting the importance of the new order status to economic activity. The new order index continues to climb, reflecting the fact that China's economy is progressing steadily. In May, not only did the manufacturing PMI rise, but the non-manufacturing business activity index also rose by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month to 54.9%. Thus, the comprehensive PMI output index for May was 54.6%, which was 0.5 percentage points higher than the previous month and continued to be above the critical point. The overall pace of expansion of production and business activities of Chinese enterprises has accelerated.

For 40 years, China's rapid economic growth has been the result of persisting in reform and opening up, the result of appropriate selection of macroeconomic policies, and the result of the decisive role of the market in resource allocation. 2018 is the 40th anniversary of China's reform and opening up. China has already clearly defined that it will further expand reform and opening up. This year is destined to face a variety of challenges. The experience of 40 years of reform and opening up shows that only by better integrating into the global market will China develop better and the people of the world will truly share the dividend of economic globalization.

However, the challenges facing current international economic and trade relations are unprecedented. Even though the international situation has changed, even though some countries are reversing in economic globalization, China still adheres to the pace of opening up. Significantly reducing tariffs on imported vehicles and parts and components can not only meet the needs of people's consumption upgrades, but also meet the needs of the people's better life. For exporting countries, it also means that China's market is more open and China is willing to share with the people of the world. dividend. The global economy has actually been interdependent. The vitality released by China's further opening up will surely benefit the whole world. Of course, China itself will also benefit from it.

In 2018, China continued to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. Reasonable macroeconomic policies will promote the stable development of the economy. In particular, the role of tax cuts has been and will be fully utilized. The VAT rate is reformed in the third and second gears. The first step has been to reduce the tax rate by 17% and 11% by 1 percentage point. Corporate income tax also has a corresponding tax reduction policy. Individual income tax will be increased by special deductions, wages and salaries will be reduced, and the cost standard will be increased, which can increase the disposable income of residents.

Judging from the current tax reduction rhythm, the scale of tax reduction in 2018 is expected to exceed the original set of more than 800 billion yuan, and the market vitality will be further released, which will help to expand consumption and promote consumption upgrade. The expansion of consumption will drive steady growth of the Chinese economy. The PMI in May is only a microcosm of China's steady economic progress. The tax reduction policy, especially the tax reduction measures combined with the tax reform, and other economic policies will continue to play a role, so that the Chinese economy will continue to strive for stability.

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