Why is white cardboard leading the increase in paper prices this round?
Since the start of construction a year later, the price of paper has been soaring, and the cost of printing companies has doubled with a trend of crazy increases. In particular, the price of white cardboard recently broke 10,000 yuan, causing shocks in the downstream printing industry.
This is the first time in the history of white cardboard that the price of 10,000 yuan per ton has been exceeded. The current average price of white cardboard has nearly doubled compared with the price of 5,176.79 yuan/ton at the bottom of 2020.
Professionals said that the current upstream and downstream of the white cardboard industry are in a state of gaming, and the downstream is dominated by inventory consumption. As for the decline in the ability to accept high prices, the overall situation is wait-and-see.
White cardboard led the rise and resumption
In the current round of paper price increases, white cardboard is a veritable leading paper category.
Looking back at the paper market in 2020, affected by the epidemic, the price of white cardboard dropped sharply in early 2020, and fell to the lowest point of the year in April. The average transaction price in the mainstream market was 5,176.79 yuan/ton.
After June last year, as the domestic epidemic situation stabilized, the demand for white cardboard increased slowly. Starting in July, the price of white cardboard began to rise continuously and rapidly, almost every month, 300-800 yuan / ton each time, showing the characteristics of rapid frequency and high rate of increase.
In the second half of last year, the large V-shaped white cardboard reversal rose, effectively activating the entire paper market, adding impetus to the price increase of other paper grades, and leading the increase effect was significant.
White cardboard leading the main reason
1. High market concentration
Jinguang Paper's acquisition of Bohui Paper has greatly increased the market concentration of white cardboard.
At present, Cotai Paper has the largest white cardboard production capacity. The total white cardboard production capacity of its subsidiaries is 3.5 million tons per year. After the acquisition of Bohui Paper, the existing white cardboard production capacity has expanded to 5.65 million tons per year, occupying Nearly 50% market share.
Chenming Paper and Sun Paper have white cardboard production capacity of 2 million tons/year and 1.4 million tons/year respectively, which together account for about 30%.
The Big Three in the white cardboard industry accounted for nearly 80% of the production capacity, and the leading pricing power and synergy have been further strengthened.
2, rapid increase in demand
On January 19, 2020, a new version of the "Plastic Restriction Order" was issued, clarifying that by the end of 2020, my country will take the lead in banning and restricting the production, sales and use of certain plastic products in certain regions and areas. By the end of 2022, disposable plastic products The consumption of the products has been significantly reduced, and alternative products have been promoted. Subsequently, various localities have introduced corresponding policies to promote the implementation of the "plastic restriction order".
With the continuous and in-depth advancement of the new version of the "Plastic Restriction Order", white cardboard has become a widely optimistic substitute for plastic due to its mature manufacturing technology and safe use.
The prominent areas where white cardboard replaces plastic products mainly include paper straws instead of plastic straws, and paper lunch boxes instead of traditional disposable lunch boxes. According to calculations by Everbright Securities, if the penetration rate of white cardboard for take-out boxes reaches 70% in 2025, the demand for white cardboard will be 1.45 million tons. In addition, paper mills have also begun to develop and switch to plastic-free paper cups.
It can be seen that the "plastic limit order" is undoubtedly the catalyst behind this round of white cardboard. The huge demand for replacement of white cardboard is also the main reason why the industry is optimistic about the fundamentals of white cardboard.
In addition, 2021 is the first year of the implementation of the waste ban, and the waste paper gap has been highlighted, and the cost of white paper has increased. White paper and white cardboard are both small commodity packaging papers, and the demand for white cardboard replacement has increased. In addition, in January of this year, the white board paper mills in Fuyang, Zhejiang, ceased production, vacated 1.05 million tons of white board paper production capacity. The exited white board paper production capacity will be replaced by white cardboard paper, further increasing the demand for white cardboard paper.
3, the supply is slightly insufficient
According to data from Zhuo Chuang Information, there will be less new capacity for softwood pulp in the next 1-2 years, and there will be basically no new softwood pulp capacity in China in 2021. In the first 11 months of 2020, China's softwood pulp imports fell by 1.52%. In November, the global shipments of softwood pulp to China fell by 9.6%. At present, the upstream and downstream inventories of the pulp industry chain are maintaining a normal low position, and the overall supply side is slightly off. tight.
In addition, in the second quarter of this year, the Ningbo area of Zhejiang plans to relocate 600,000 tons of white cardboard production capacity, and the supply of white cardboard will decrease. At the same time, before the third quarter of 2021, there has not been any new production capacity in the country, and the output of white cardboard will increase in the fourth quarter.
4. Pulp futures pull up
Pulp futures prices have repeatedly hit record highs this year, and rising costs have also helped the white cardboard prices continue to rise.
Pulp futures have started a strong rise since early November last year. On March 1, SP2103, the main contract of Shanghai Futures Pulp Futures, hit a new high of 7790 yuan/ton. As of the close on March 4, SP2103 reported 7352 yuan/ton, still at a high level.
Shanghai Futures Exchange's main pulp futures contract SP2103 daily chart
*Every Monday, "Xiaojiang Printing Weekly" will regularly publish a chart of pulp futures, so stay tuned!
It can be seen from the graph that the pulp futures have made a short-term correction recently, but professionals analyze that in the context of the general rise in the pulp and paper industry, pulp prices are still bullish in the short term.
White Cardboard Market Forecast
Multi-party analysis display
01
The high-level adjustment of the white cardboard market, increased pressure on downstream procurement costs, and limited follow-up on real orders.
02
Under the support of pulp cost, paper mills insist on price increase mentality. It is expected that the short-term white cardboard market will move steadily and upward, and the medium- and long-term plastic order will still benefit the demand for white cardboard.
03
The purchase cost of downstream packaging materials and raw materials for printing plants has increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of paper prices and stock up reasonably.